Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 120
Filtrar
1.
Diabetes Obes Metab ; 2024 Apr 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38558257

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Kidney transplantation is the gold standard therapeutic alternative for patients with end-stage renal disease; nevertheless, it is not without potential complications leading to considerable morbidity and mortality such as post-transplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM). This narrative review aims to comprehensively evaluate PTDM in terms of its diagnostic approach, underlying pathophysiological pathways, epidemiological data, and management strategies. METHODS: Articles were retrieved from electronic databases using predefined search terms. Inclusion criteria encompassed studies investigating PTDM diagnosis, pathophysiology, epidemiology, and management strategies. RESULTS: PTDM emerges as a significant complication following kidney transplantation, influenced by various pathophysiological factors including peripheral insulin resistance, immunosuppressive medications, infections, and proinflammatory pathways. Despite discrepancies in prevalence estimates, PTDM poses substantial challenges to transplant. Diagnostic approaches, including traditional criteria such as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c, are limited in their ability to capture early PTDM manifestations. Oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) emerges as a valuable tool, particularly in the early post-transplant period. Management strategies for PTDM remain unclear, within sufficient evidence from large-scale randomized clinical trials to guide optimal interventions. Nevertheless, glucose-lowering agents and life style modifications constitute primary modalities for managing hyperglycemia in transplant recipients. DISCUSSION: The complex interplay between PTDM and the transplant process necessitates individualized diagnostic and management approaches. While early recognition and intervention are paramount, modifications to maintenance immunosuppressive regimens based solely on PTDM risk are not warranted, given the potential adverse consequences such as increased rejection risk. Further research is essential to refine management strategies and enhance outcomes for transplant recipients.

2.
Heliyon ; 10(8): e29550, 2024 Apr 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38655295

RESUMO

This scoping review addresses the transformation and development of new healthcare systems in nine countries -Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan over the period following the collapse of the Soviet Union from 1991 to the present. This assessment focuses on maternal and child health, mental health, communicable diseases, and non-communicable diseases in an effort to highlight the changes in the healthcare status of these nine countries under scrutiny. Considering that all the post-Soviet nations are officially recognized members of the World Health Organization (WHO) and have demonstrated their commitment to attaining the WHO's objectives, the evaluation of healthcare system progress and improvement was carried out utilizing indicators provided by the WHO. This review reveals that the evolution of healthcare systems could be considered sustainable, given that average life expectancy has returned to the level it was in 1991- the year of the USSR's breakup, and people's health has improved since the turn of the twenty-first century. To enhance the potential success of future healthcare reforms, however, governments must monitor implementation of the reform process, evaluate the achievement of objectives, and make necessary adjustments. The success of future healthcare changes will depend on the active involvement of the government, medical community, and patient community, as well as obtaining the support of local health authorities. This study may help identify successful and failed strategies, guiding future healthcare changes and investments.

3.
Kidney Int Suppl (2011) ; 13(1): 71-82, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38618496

RESUMO

The International Society of Nephrology Global Kidney Health Atlas (ISN-GKHA) was established to aid understanding of the status and capacity of countries to provide optimal kidney care worldwide. This report presents the current characteristics of kidney care in the ISN Newly Independent States (NIS) and Russia region. Although the median prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) was higher (11.4%) than the global median (9.5%), the median CKD-related death rate (1.4%) and prevalence of treated kidney failure (KF) in the region (411 per million population [pmp]) were lower than they are globally (2.5% and 822.8 pmp, respectively). Capacity to provide an adequate frequency of hemodialysis (HD) and kidney transplantation services is present in all the countries (100%). In spite of significant economic advancement, the region has critical shortages of nephrologists, dietitians, transplant coordinators, social workers, palliative care physicians, and kidney supportive care nurses. Home HD remains unavailable in any country in the region. Although national registries for dialysis and kidney transplantation are available in most of the countries across the ISN NIS and Russia region, few registries exist for nondialysis CKD and acute kidney injury. Although a national strategy for improving care for CKD patients is presented in more than half of the countries, no country in the region had a CKD-specific policy. Strategies that incorporate workforce training, planning, and development for all KF caregivers could help ensure sustainable kidney care delivery in the ISN NIS and Russia region.

5.
Ren Fail ; 46(1): 2326312, 2024 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38482586

RESUMO

According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patients with CKD between 2014 and 2020. During the observation period, 444,404 women and 258,718 men were registered with CKD, 459,900 (66%) were Kazakhs and 47% were older than 50. The incidence rate notably decreased: 6365 people per million population (PMP) in 2014 and 4040 people PMP in 2020. The prevalence changed from 10,346 to 38,287 people PMP, and the mortality rate increased dramatically from 279 PMP to 916 PMP. Kazakhstan's central regions, Turkestan and Kyzylorda were identified as the most burdensome ones. The ARIMA model projected 1,504,694 expected prevalent cases in 2030. The predicted mortality climbed from 17,068 cases in 2020 to 37,305 deaths in 2030. By 2030, the prevalence and mortality of CKD will significantly increase, according to the predicted model. A thorough action plan with effective risk factor management, enhanced screening among risk populations, and prompt treatment are required to lessen the burden of disease in Kazakhstan.


Assuntos
População da Ásia Central , Insuficiência Renal Crônica , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Prevalência , Cazaquistão/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/epidemiologia , Incidência , Previsões
7.
Blood Purif ; 2024 Jan 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38262381

RESUMO

Renal injury is among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality, however, there are no reliable indicators for determining the likelihood of developing CKD, CKD progression or AKI events. Vascular growth factors called angiopoietins have a role in endothelial function, vascular remodeling, tissue stabilization and inflammation, and have been implicated as prognostic and predictive markers in AKI. Although the exact mechanism of the relationship between kidney injury and angiopoietins is unknown, this review demonstrates that AKI patients have higher angiopoietin-2 levels and that higher angiopoietin-1 to angiopoietin-2 ratio may potentially be linked with a reduced risk of the chronic kidney disease progression. This review therefore emphasizes the importance of angiopoietin-2 and proposes that it could be an important predictor of AKI in clinical settings. There is a need for further large scale randomized clinical trials in order to have a better understanding of the significance of angiopoietin-2 and for the determination of its potential clinical implications.

8.
Eur J Pediatr ; 183(4): 1683-1691, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38214809

RESUMO

We aimed to describe incidence and all-cause mortality of hematological pediatric malignancies (leukemia and lymphomas) in Kazakhstan based on nationwide large-scale healthcare data from the Unified National Electronic Healthcare System (UNEHS) for the 2014-2021 year period. The cohort included data of patients less than 18 years old with the diagnosis of hematological malignancies registered in the UNEHS (inpatient and outpatient registries) for the year period 2014-2021. Descriptive statistics were conducted to indicate socio-demographic characteristics of the cohort. Incidence and all-cause mortality were calculated per 100,000 population. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to investigate the association between determinants with the all-cause mortality. The total cohort consisted of 3357 children with leukemia and 1474 children with lymphomas. The mean age at diagnosis of leukemia and lymphomas was 7.3 ± 4.7 and 9.9 ± 4.9 years, respectively. The incidence rate of hematological malignancies was 6.8 per 100,000 in 2021. Patients with ALL had a higher incidence rate than patients with AML (3.4 and 1.2 per 100,000 in 2021, respectively). The incidence rate of HL and NHL was relatively similar which varied from 0.6 to 2.6 per 100,000 in 2014-2021. All-cause mortality of pediatric hematological malignancies varied from 1.1 to 1.5 per 100,000 in 2014-2021, with the peak in 2016 (1.7 per 100,000). Younger age is significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in children with AML. CONCUSION: Patients with ALL had a higher incidence rate than patients with AML. The incidence rate of HL and NHL was relatively similar. All-cause mortality rates for leukemia and lymphomas were quite stable during the study period. Younger age is significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality among AML patients. However, there is no significant association of age with all-cause mortality among ALL, HL and NHL. In order to obtain more reliable data and analysis on pediatric (hematological) malignancies, specific registries for childhood tumors (including detailed information on relapses, treatments, short and long-term side effects, and specific death causes) should be implemented. WHAT IS KNOWN: • Leukemias and lymphomas together account for around 45% of all pediatric malignancies. • Lymphoma accounts for 12% of all childhood malignancies; non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL) are more frequent than Hodgkin's lymphomas (HL). WHAT IS NEW: • The incidence rate of ALL was higher than the incidence rate of AML throughout the whole study period, whereas all-cause mortality of ALL and AML was quite stable. • According to Cox PH analysis, younger age (0-5 years old) was associated with a higher risk of death among AML children compared to older children, and no significant association of age was observed with all-cause mortality among ALL and lymphomas.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Hematológicas , Doença de Hodgkin , Leucemia Mieloide Aguda , Linfoma não Hodgkin , Linfoma , Humanos , Criança , Adolescente , Recém-Nascido , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Cazaquistão/epidemiologia , Linfoma não Hodgkin/diagnóstico , Linfoma não Hodgkin/epidemiologia , Linfoma não Hodgkin/patologia , Doença de Hodgkin/epidemiologia , Doença de Hodgkin/patologia , Neoplasias Hematológicas/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Hematológicas/terapia , Incidência , Atenção à Saúde
9.
Nephrol Dial Transplant ; 39(4): 589-599, 2024 Mar 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37791392

RESUMO

Proteinuria is a well-established biomarker of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and a risk predictor of associated disease outcomes. Proteinuria is also a driver of CKD progression toward end-stage kidney disease. Toxic effects of filtered proteins on proximal tubular epithelial cells enhance tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis. The extent of protein toxicity and the underlying molecular mechanisms responsible for tubular injury during proteinuria remain unclear. Nevertheless, albumin elicits its toxic effects when degraded and reabsorbed by proximal tubular epithelial cells. Overall, healthy kidneys excrete over 1000 individual proteins, which may be potentially harmful to proximal tubular epithelial cells when filtered and/or reabsorbed in excess. Proteinuria can cause kidney damage, inflammation and fibrosis by increasing reactive oxygen species, autophagy dysfunction, lysosomal membrane permeabilization, endoplasmic reticulum stress and complement activation. Here we summarize toxic proteins reported in proteinuria and the current understanding of molecular mechanisms of toxicity of proteins on proximal tubular epithelial cells leading to CKD progression.


Assuntos
Falência Renal Crônica , Insuficiência Renal Crônica , Humanos , Proteinúria/complicações , Rim , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/complicações , Falência Renal Crônica/complicações , Fibrose , Progressão da Doença
10.
Cardiovasc Ultrasound ; 21(1): 21, 2023 Dec 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38098064

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Physical activity contributes to changes in cardiac morphology, which are known as "athlete's heart". Therefore, these modifications can be characterized using different imaging modalities such as echocardiography, including Doppler (flow Doppler and Doppler myocardial imaging) and speckle-tracking, along with cardiac magnetic resonance, and cardiac computed tomography. MAIN TEXT: Echocardiography is the most common method for assessing cardiac structure and function in athletes due to its availability, repeatability, versatility, and low cost. It allows the measurement of parameters like left ventricular wall thickness, cavity dimensions, and mass. Left ventricular myocardial strain can be measured by tissue Doppler (using the pulse wave Doppler principle) or speckle tracking echocardiography (using the two-dimensional grayscale B-mode images), which provide information on the deformation of the myocardium. Cardiac magnetic resonance provides a comprehensive evaluation of cardiac morphology and function with superior accuracy compared to echocardiography. With the addition of contrast agents, myocardial state can be characterized. Thus, it is particularly effective in differentiating an athlete's heart from pathological conditions, however, is less accessible and more expensive compared to other techniques. Coronary computed tomography is used to assess coronary artery anatomy and identify anomalies or diseases, but its use is limited due to radiation exposure and cost, making it less suitable for young athletes. A novel approach, hemodynamic forces analysis, uses feature tracking to quantify intraventricular pressure gradients responsible for blood flow. Hemodynamic forces analysis has the potential for studying blood flow within the heart and assessing cardiac function. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, each diagnostic technique has its own advantages and limitations for assessing cardiac adaptations in athletes. Examining and comparing the cardiac adaptations resulting from physical activity with the structural cardiac changes identified through different diagnostic modalities is a pivotal focus in the field of sports medicine.


Assuntos
Cardiomegalia Induzida por Exercícios , Humanos , Coração/diagnóstico por imagem , Coração/fisiologia , Ecocardiografia , Miocárdio/patologia , Ventrículos do Coração/diagnóstico por imagem , Atletas
11.
BMJ Open ; 13(10): e074208, 2023 10 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37821138

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence, mortality rates and survival HRs in Kazakhstan, using large-scale administrative health data records during 2014-2019. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTINGS: Data for patients with TB in Kazakhstan during 2014-2019, reported in the Unified National Electronic Healthcare System. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with TB in Kazakhstan (ICD-10 (The International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision) codes: A15-A19). OUTCOME MEASURES: Demographic factors, diagnoses and comorbidities were analysed using descriptive, bivariate and multivariable statistical analyses. TB incidence and mortality rates were calculated, and Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were performed to assess risk factors for survival rates. RESULTS: Of the 149 122 patients with TB, 91 437 (61%) were males, and 139 931 (94%) had respiratory TB. From 2014 to 2019, TB incidence declined from 227 to 15.2 per 100 000 individuals, while all-cause mortality increased from 8.4 to 15.2 per 100 000. Age-specific TB incidence was lowest for 0-10 years of age and highest for 20 years of age. Being older, man, urban residence versus rural, retired versus employed, having HIV and having diabetes versus no comorbidities were associated with lower survival rates. CONCLUSION: To date, this is the largest TB published study for Kazakhstan, characterising TB incidence and mortality trends by demographic factors, and risk factors for survival rates. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to address the growing burden of TB, particularly among older adults, men, urban residents and those with HIV and diabetes. The study underscores the importance of using administrative health data to inform policy and health system responses to TB in Kazakhstan.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus , Infecções por HIV , Tuberculose , Masculino , Humanos , Idoso , Recém-Nascido , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Criança , Feminino , Estudos Retrospectivos , Cazaquistão/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Incidência , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/complicações
12.
Diabetes Obes Metab ; 25(12): 3766-3778, 2023 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37700437

RESUMO

AIM: To perform a meta-analysis to quantify the effect of tirzepatide on blood pressure and lipids. METHODS: PubMed, Ovid/Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane Library and CINAHL databases were screened and the randomized controlled trials evaluating the effects of tirzepatide on either blood pressure or lipid profiles were included. RESULTS: Seven randomized controlled trials have investigated the effects of tirzepatide on blood pressure and lipid profiles. Regardless of the dose administered, tirzepatide resulted in significant decreases in systolic blood pressure of median -4.20 (95% confidence interval [CI] -5.17 to -3.23) mmHg for 5 mg, -5.34 (-6.31 to -4.37) mmHg for 10 mg, and -5.77 (-6.73 to -4.81) mmHg for 15 mg. At all three once-weekly doses, tirzepatide treatment resulted in significant decreases in total cholesterol levels: median -3.76% (95% CI -5.20% to -2.31%) for 5 mg; -4.63% (-6.07% to -3.19%) for 10 mg; and -5.93% (-7.36% to -4.49%) for 15 mg. Additionally, tirzepatide treatment led to increased high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels and decreased low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and triglyceride levels. CONCLUSIONS: Tirzepatide induced clinically meaningful reductions in the levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and triglycerides, along with increases in the level of HDL cholesterol.


Assuntos
Colesterol , Humanos , Pressão Sanguínea , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Triglicerídeos , HDL-Colesterol
13.
Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand ; 102(12): 1682-1693, 2023 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37667510

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Spontaneous pregnancy loss (SPL) is a common health problem that affects 1:10 of childbearing women, and is linked with physical and psychological complications. As the number of nationwide studies on the incidence of SPL is few, especially from middle-income countries, in this study we investigated the epidemiology, complications and outcomes of SPL before 22 weeks of gestation by analyzing large-scale healthcare data from the Unified Nationwide Electronic Healthcare System (UNEHS) in Kazakhstan. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A population-based study among women who experienced SPL in any healthcare setting of the Republic of Kazakhstan during the period of 2014-2019. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10th edition and ICD 9th edition's procedural codes were utilized to retrieve data using relevant diagnostic and procedural codes. RESULTS: In total, 207 317 records of women who have experienced an SPL before 22 weeks of gestation were analyzed from all Kazakhstani regions. The estimated prevalence of SPL was 8.7%, with a 20% decline over a 6-year period. The SPL cases ratio comprises on average 6.2 per 1000 reproductive-age women. Incomplete miscarriage (ICD-10 code "O03.4") was the most common type (37.8%), followed by blighted ovum (ICD-10 code "O02.0"; 34.1%) and missed abortion (ICD-10 code "O02.1"; 13.5%). The most common management methods were dilation and curettage of the uterus (ICD-9 code "69.0"; 84.7%) and aspiration curettage of the uterus (ICD-9 code "65.0"; 15%), whereas medical management was rarely performed (2.6%). CONCLUSION: The information available in UNEHS adequately identifies types of miscarriages and treatment methods. Although the prevalence of SPL before 22 weeks of gestation is decreasing, management of miscarriages requires closer attention.


Assuntos
Aborto Induzido , Aborto Espontâneo , Gravidez , Feminino , Humanos , Aborto Espontâneo/epidemiologia , Cazaquistão/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Atenção à Saúde
14.
Front Cardiovasc Med ; 10: 1127320, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37600059

RESUMO

Background: Cardiovascular diseases contribute to premature mortality globally, resulting in substantial social and economic burdens. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study reported that in 2019 alone, heart attack and strokes accounted for the deaths of 18.6 million individuals. Ischemic heart diseases, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), accounted for 182 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and it is leading cause of death worldwide. Aim: The aim of this study is to present the burden of AMI in Kazakhstan and describe the outcome of hospitalized patients. Methods: The data of 79,172 people admitted to hospital with ICD-10 diagnosis I21 between 2014 and 2019 was derived from the Unified National Electronic Health System and retrospectively analyzed. Results: The majority of the cohort (53,285, 67%) were men, with an average age of 63 (±12) years, predominantly of Kazakh (38,057, 48%) and Russian (24,583, 31%) ethnicities. Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (61,972, 78%). In males, a sharp increase in incidence is present after 40 years, while for females, the morbidity increases gradually after 55. Throughout the observation period, all-cause mortality rose from 101 to 210 people per million population (PMP). In 2019, AMI account for 169,862 DALYs in Kazakhstan, with a significant proportion (79%) attributed to years of life lost due to premature death (YLDs). Approximately half of disease burden due to AMI (80,794 DALYs) was in age group 55-69 years. Although incidence is higher for men, they have better survival rates than women. In terms of revascularization procedures, coronary artery bypass grafting yielded higher survival rates compared to percutaneous coronary intervention (86.3% and 80.9% respectively) during the 5-year follow-up. Conclusion: This research evaluated the burden and disability-adjusted life years of AMI in Kazakhstan, the largest Central Asian country. The results show that more effective disease management systems and preventive measures at earlier ages are needed.

15.
Front Public Health ; 11: 1138604, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37408741

RESUMO

Background and objectives: Although global HIV pandemic has stabilized, it continues to rise in Eastern Europe and Central Asia due to exponential growth of newly acquired cases. Based on UNAIDS, there are currently 35,000 people living with HIV (PLWH) in Kazakhstan. This alarming HIV epidemiologic situation mandates urgent investigation of causes, routes of transmission and other characteristics in order to halt the epidemic. We aimed to analyze the data of all hospitalized patients for the period of 2014-2019 who tested positive for HIV from the Unified National Electronic Health System (UNEHS) of Kazakhstan. Methods: This cohort study extracted data for all HIV positive patients during 2014-2019 from UNEHS of Kazakhstan to apply descriptive, Kaplan-Meier estimation, and Cox proportional hazards regression model. Crosscheck of the target population data was conducted with tuberculosis, viral hepatitis, alcohol abuse and intravenous drug user (IDU) cohorts in order to create a comprehensive database. All survival functions and factors associated with mortality were tested for significance. Results: The cohort population (n = 2,213) mean age was 33.3 ± 13.3 years with 1,375 males (62.1%) and 838 females (37.9%). Incidence rate decreased from 2.05 in 2014 to 1.88 in 2019, however, prevalence and mortality continues to escalate every year, the mortality raised significantly from 0.39 in 2014 to 0.97 in 2019. People aged >50 years, males, retired people, patients from tuberculosis hospital profile had much lower survival probabilities than the corresponding groups. Adjusted Cox regression model death hazard showed strong association of HIV patients with tuberculosis coinfection (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1; 1.7, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The results of this study demonstrate high rates of HIV mortality, strong association of HIV with TB coinfection, regional, age specific, gender, hospital profile and social status differences that significantly affect HIV prevalence. Since the prevalence of HIV is continuing to increase, more information is necessary for evaluation and implementation of prevention procedures.


Assuntos
Coinfecção , Infecções por HIV , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa , Tuberculose , Masculino , Feminino , Humanos , Adulto Jovem , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Estudos de Coortes , Cazaquistão/epidemiologia , Coinfecção/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Atenção à Saúde , Hospitais
16.
HIV AIDS (Auckl) ; 15: 387-397, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37426767

RESUMO

Background: HIV is a growing public health burden that threatens thousands of people in Kazakhstan. Countries around the world, including Kazakhstan, are facing significant problems in predicting HIV infection prevalence. It is crucial to understand the epidemiological trends of infectious diseases and to monitor the prevalence of HIV in a long-term perspective. Thus, in this study, we aimed to forecast the prevalence of HIV in Kazakhstan for 10 years from 2020 to 2030 by using mathematical modeling and time series analysis. Methods: We use statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and a nonlinear epidemic Susceptible-Infected (SI) model to forecast the HIV infection prevalence rate in Kazakhstan. We estimated the parameters of the models using open data on the prevalence of HIV infection among women and men (aged 15-49 years) in Kazakhstan provided by the Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics. We also predict the effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) control measures on the prevalence rate. Results: The ARIMA (1,2,0) model suggests that the prevalence of HIV infection in Kazakhstan will increase from 0.29 in 2021 to 0.47 by 2030. On the other hand, the SI model suggests that this parameter will increase to 0.60 by 2030 based on the same data. Both models were statistically significant by Akaike Information Criterion corrected (AICc) score and by the goodness of fit. HIV prevention under the PrEP strategy on the SI model showed a significant effect on the reduction of the HIV prevalence rate. Conclusion: This study revealed that ARIMA (1,2,0) predicts a linear increasing trend, while SI forecasts a nonlinear increase with a higher prevalence of HIV. Therefore, it is recommended for healthcare providers and policymakers use this model to calculate the cost required for the regional allocation of healthcare resources. Moreover, this model can be used for planning effective healthcare treatments.

17.
Front Public Health ; 11: 1132742, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37143985

RESUMO

Background: Although there are numerous sources of epidemiologic information on breast cancer in Kazakhstan, none of them have specifically examined the burden of this disease. Therefore, this article aims to provide an overview of the breast cancer prevalence, incidence, mortality, and distribution and changes over time in Kazakhstan based on nationwide large-scale healthcare data from the National Registry in order to encourage more research on the impact of various diseases at the regional and national levels. Methods: The study cohort included all adult women older than 25 years who were diagnosed with breast cancer in any clinical setting of the Republic of Kazakhstan during the period of 2014-2019. The data were extracted from the Unified Nationwide Electronic Health System (UNEHS) to get an overview of descriptive statistics, incidence, prevalence, and mortality rate calculations and the Cox proportional hazards regression model. All survival functions and factors associated with mortality were tested for significance. Results: The cohort population (n = 55,465) comprised subjects with the age at the diagnosis of breast cancer from 25 to 97 years, with a mean of 55.7 ± 12.0 years. The majority of the study population belonged to the age group 45-59 years, which is 44.8% of the cohort. The all-cause mortality rate of the cohort is 16%. The prevalence rate increased from 30.4 per 10,000 population in 2014 to 50.6 in 2019. The incidence rate varied from 4.5 per 10,000 population in 2015 to 7.3 in 2016. Mortality rates were stable and high in the senile age patients (75-89 years old). Breast cancer mortality was positively associated with women who had been diagnosed with diabetes, HR 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1-2.3), whereas it was negatively associated with arterial hypertension, HR 0.4 (95% CI, 0.4-0.5). Conclusion: Overall, Kazakhstan is experiencing an increase in the incidence of breast cancer cases, but the mortality rate has started to decline. The switch to population mammography screening could reduce the breast cancer mortality rate. These findings should be utilized to help Kazakhstan determine what cancer control priorities should be utilized, including the need to implement efficient and affordable screening and prevention programs.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Adulto , Humanos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Incidência , Prevalência , Cazaquistão/epidemiologia , Mamografia
18.
Polymers (Basel) ; 15(9)2023 Apr 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37177189

RESUMO

The presence of certain proteins in biofluids such as synovial fluid, blood plasma, and saliva gives these fluids non-Newtonian viscoelastic properties. The amount of these protein macromolecules in biofluids is an important biomarker for the diagnosis of various health conditions, including Alzheimer's disease, cardiovascular disorders, and joint quality. However, existing technologies for measuring the behavior of macromolecules in biofluids have limitations, such as long turnaround times, complex protocols, and insufficient sensitivity. To address these issues, we propose non-contact, optical Brillouin and Raman spectroscopy to assess the viscoelasticity and chemistry of non-Newtonian solutions, respectively, at different temperatures in several minutes. In this work, bovine and human serum albumin solution-based biopolymers were studied to obtain both their collective dynamics and molecular chemical evolution across heat-driven phase transitions at various protein concentrations. The observed phase transitions at elevated temperatures could be fully delayed in heated biopolymers by appropriately raising the level of protein concentration. The non-contact optical monitoring of viscoelastic and chemical property evolution could represent novel potential mechano-chemical biomarkers for disease diagnosis and subsequent treatment applications, including hyperthermia.

19.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 8412, 2023 05 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37225754

RESUMO

Diabetes mellitus (DM) affects the quality of life and leads to disability, high morbidity, and premature mortality. DM is a risk factor for cardiovascular, neurological, and renal diseases, and places a major burden on healthcare systems globally. Predicting the one-year mortality of patients with DM can considerably help clinicians tailor treatments to patients at risk. In this study, we aimed to show the feasibility of predicting the one-year mortality of DM patients based on administrative health data. We use clinical data for 472,950 patients that were admitted to hospitals across Kazakhstan between mid-2014 to December 2019 and were diagnosed with DM. The data was divided into four yearly-specific cohorts (2016-, 2017-, 2018-, and 2019-cohorts) to predict mortality within a specific year based on clinical and demographic information collected up to the end of the preceding year. We then develop a comprehensive machine learning platform to construct a predictive model of one-year mortality for each year-specific cohort. In particular, the study implements and compares the performance of nine classification rules for predicting the one-year mortality of DM patients. The results show that gradient-boosting ensemble learning methods perform better than other algorithms across all year-specific cohorts while achieving an area under the curve (AUC) between 0.78 and 0.80 on independent test sets. The feature importance analysis conducted by calculating SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values shows that age, duration of diabetes, hypertension, and sex are the top four most important features for predicting one-year mortality. In conclusion, the results show that it is possible to use machine learning to build accurate predictive models of one-year mortality for DM patients based on administrative health data. In the future, integrating this information with laboratory data or patients' medical history could potentially boost the performance of the predictive models.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus , Qualidade de Vida , Humanos , Cazaquistão/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Mortalidade Prematura , Aprendizado de Máquina
20.
Medicina (Kaunas) ; 59(4)2023 Mar 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37109608

RESUMO

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has various etiologies, making it impossible to fully understand its complex pathophysiology. Elevated levels of plasma creatinine, proteinuria, and albuminuria and declined eGFR are traits observed in CKD patients. The current study attempts to highlight the collagen triple helix repeat containing 1 (CTHRC1) protein as a putative blood biomarker for CKD in addition to existing recognized indicators of CKD progression. Methods: A total of 26 CKD patients and 18 healthy controls were enrolled in this study. Clinical characteristics and complete blood and biochemical analyses were collected, and human ELISA kits were used to detect possible CKD biomarkers. Results: The study's findings showed that CTHRC1 correlates with key clinical markers of kidney function such as 24 h urine total protein, creatinine, urea, and uric acid. In addition, CTHRC1 demonstrated a strong significant difference (p ≤ 0.0001) between the CKD and control group. Conclusions: Our research demonstrates that the plasma level of CTHRC1 can distinguish between those with CKD and healthy patients. Plasma CTHRC1 levels may aid in the diagnosis of CKD given the current state of knowledge, and these results call for further investigation in a wider, more diverse patient group.


Assuntos
Proteínas da Matriz Extracelular , Insuficiência Renal Crônica , Humanos , Albuminúria , Biomarcadores , Colágeno , Creatinina , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/complicações , Taxa de Filtração Glomerular
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA